As part of the effort to encourage a swifter revaluation of the yuan, Paulson has been urging the Chinese to open their financial system to foreign banks and investment houses including major U.S. institutions. They have the expertise, he maintains, to help guide the Chinese to a more modern financial system with a currency whose value is not controlled by the government but set by free-market trading.
However, Paulson is likely to meet strong resistance from the Chinese in this area, given the billions of dollars in losses suffered by U.S. financial giants in the credit crisis that erupted last August. The Chinese are likely to say they don’t need the financial innovation that has brought so much grief to U.S. firms.
Likewise, a U.S. effort to get China to promote greater energy efficiency as a way of reducing strains on global supplies will also face strong resistance. In fact, the Chinese have been moving in the opposite direction, providing ever greater subsidies to keep energy prices low as global prices have surged.
“Over the past year, China has really fallen off the energy conservation wagon,” said Nicholas Lardy, a China expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “This will make it very difficult for China to cut energy use relative to their gross domestic product.”
And the Chinese are signaling that they do not intend to speed up the pace at which they are allowing their currency to rise in value against the dollar. They are going as fast as is prudent, they argue, despite demands in Congress to pass legislation that would impose economic sanctions on China if they do not move faster.
For one thing, if the dollar fell in value more quickly against the yuan it could trigger bigger dollar declines against other currencies such as the euro, where it has already touched record lows. Just this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the dollar’s decline had contributed to an “unwelcome rise in import prices and consumer-price inflation,” remarks which were seen as a signal that the Fed doesn’t plan to cut interest rates further because of heightened inflation concerns.
“Right now, we are interested in getting some dollar stability and if China allowed the yuan to appreciate more quickly it could create more turmoil and a possible run on the dollar that would exacerbate our current plight,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com.
Analysts are not expecting any breakthroughs on a host of other trade tensions between the two countries even though the U.S. deficit with China rose last year to $256 billion, the highest ever recorded with a single country and one-third of the total U.S. deficit with the world.
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